Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture 1 confronted to pollinator decline 2

1 There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many 2 agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the 3 contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the 4 vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic 5 approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops 6 used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of 7 pollination worlwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the 8 world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer 9 surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price 10 elasticities of –1.5 to –0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop 11 categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil 12 crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do 13 not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator14 dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the 15 regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the 16 current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a 17 positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability of a crop category to pollinators and its 18 value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after 19 pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories – namely fruits, vegetables, and 20 stimulants– will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even 21 more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the 22 economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does 23 not take into account the strategic responses of the markets. 24 Economic valuation of pollinators 3